Escalated Engineering Estimation Accountability — 58% Miss Rate

Situation

Identified that 58% of engineering estimates are being missed, with most date changes occurring after the target date. Declared this unacceptable and directed Brady to present this data at the next Engineering Weekly (Apr 14). Peter committed to personally attending to ensure accountability and a clear plan to fix the process.

Reasoning

The 58% miss rate is a systemic engineering credibility problem — if engineering can't commit to dates, the entire prod/eng interface breaks down. Most changes happening after the target date means engineering isn't flagging risks early — they're silently missing deadlines and adjusting after the fact. Having Brady (Product) present the data is deliberate — it makes engineering confront the impact on people waiting for deliverables. Peter's personal attendance signals CTO-level weight behind accountability.

Additional Context

The specific trigger was Brady's data analysis of engineering delivery accuracy across the product board. This connects directly to the prod/eng exit criteria decision — estimation accuracy is the engineering side of the interface contract. The TPS report corroborates with multiple items showing date slips and overdue warnings.

Observed Evidence

Fathom meeting summary captures the estimation miss rate discussion and the directive for Brady to present at Engineering Weekly. Peter committed to attending personally. TPS report corroborates with multiple items showing date slips across Core Distro and Release All Things.

Matching Patterns

Confidence Breakdown

Reasoning Depth Analysis